There is a hypothesis referred to by the PM, that at least part of the violence was deliberately orchestrated. Underlying that hypothesis is the assessment that there are elements in Kashmir who are opposed to any grievance redressal or dialogue and are more interested in converting the Kashmir situation into an intifada to coincide with the opening of the UN general assembly session run-up to the Obama visit.
Analyses of riots all over the world reveal that a trigger group of 15 to 20 persons can instigate a mob to violence. Such large-scale police casualties indicate pre-planned provocations. One report mentions that more than 1600 policemen have been injured in the “non-violent” protests in Kashmir.
In the recently released Ipsos MORI poll conducted by the London School of Economics showed that while in the Valley separatist sentiment may be relatively stronger, in the whole state of J&K the majority want to stay with India. In regions other than the Valley opposition to separatism is very strong.
Delhi cannot afford to overlook the possibility of Pakistan’s ISI initiating and sustaining violence. It looks as though the Kashmiri parties and the separatists are attempting to use Delhi to cover up their own “crypto civil war”. Kashmiri crowds are indulging in intense violence to provoke the Kashmiri policemen under an elected Kashmiri administration. The Indian army and paramilitary forces (the CRPF is a police force at the disposal of the Kashmir police) are not involved in the present violence. Delhi should not get itself trapped in the “crypto Kashmiri civil war”.
